Need Value Of Win 94 Commemorative #59 of 100

I am considering the purchase of a WINCHESTER model 94, SN 5618XXX. This is an American West Commemorative and in As Issued Condition (Still has factory security seal and tag).
Wood is very nice, engraved and appointed nicely and comes with a presentation case.
Bob Nisbet
Redstone Arsenal
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Bob,

Here is the data which I emailed to you.

I went at it this way. I went to a site that deals in Winchester Commemoratives http://www.doublegun.com/roth.htm and plotted up the less common rifles versus their
asking price. I limited the data to production runs of 2500 or less on the horizontal axis. From the chart #1 you
can see the data scatter. Then I plotted just the 500 and less production runs on chart #2. This might not be realistic because of the limited amount of data but it certainly has a trend. The fewer guns = higher value. No revelation there. From chart 2 you are looking at maybe $5000 for the rifle. On both charts $ are vertical and production run is horizontal. I hope this is of some help

Bob,

Here is chart number 2.

Let me try again

Well I'll be. It worked!!

Being an engineer, that type analysis is perfect to impart enough good information to make an informed decision.
It would appear that the charts lean toward a value exceeding $3000.
Only challenge is whether there are buyers out there that actually would pay the indicated prices or whether those projected prices correspond to what a seller would ask, not what would be a final acceptable sale price.
Bob Nisbet

Bob,

And as an engineer you know the risk of projections based on insufficient or inaccurate data.

As a collector you well know there is obviously a gap, sometimes a huge one between asked and accepted prices. Good luck. It is a very nice looking rifle. My bet is that it has never been fired.

Glad it was of use,
2bit

I also am a member of the Winchester Colletor's Forum.
Bert, one of the experts there offered a completely different view of the valuation, based on the fact that this rifle was a special order and not one made by USRA as an official commemorative.
Any further thoughts.
The ref link to the Winchester Collector's forum thread info is below. http://www.winchestercollector.org/forum/viewtopic.php? t=3010

Bob Nisbet

I'll always bow to Bert's expertise. Sounds like it just got more expensive